China’s Rise: Projecting Increased Growth For 2008

If you somehow managed to keep up with the goings on of the broad international news space throughout 2007, you know there’s one topic in particular that received copious amounts of attention. No, not that Mexican repellant them paranoid repubs and loose-limbed dems signed off on. Nor the tinderscape that was/is southern California. Darfur? Nope. (Too bad, though. It sure would’ve been good to see the American media juggle that ball a tad bit more.) Pakistan? Nah. The year was capped by stories of turmoil in Islamabad and elsewhere, but the dailies and weeklies we know and love weren’t too focused on Musharraf & Co for a good three-quarters of the year now past. (That has certainly changed since October.)

So, what then? What term takes the cake, as it were, for the whole of 2007? Me thinks China.

Yes, China. Beijing. Hong Kong. Shanghai. Shenzhen. The red giant.

Sure, its size and strength are now being questioned by all sorts of business page pundits here in these earthly parts. They see China as a relatively poor candidate for the label of superpower-to-be, despite the many widespread allusions made in seasons prior for such a destiny. Still, I myself find it very difficult to observe the industrial growth (however environmentally hazardous and morally despicable it in fact is) occurring at present in that there nation and downplay its trajectory. If the Chinese government continues gradually on the path to more and more lax authoritarianism and maintains a keen eye on cutthroat capitalism, I dare say it’ll be walkin’ and talkin’ on all but equally fortuitous ground as the star-spangled US and A in the not-too-distant future. (Of course, in the end, that may not be saying much. Both China and the US are bound together like two peas a pod right now – economically speaking - which likely isn’t good for either party in the long run.)

Now, you’ve probably read that opener above - and perhaps jumped through to the adjoining fraction - and may now be wondering what it is I’m really getting at. I didn’t speak explicitly of technology whatsoever in the first three hundred words or so. What gives, you ask.

Don’t fret. That part’s coming. I put forth such a lengthy and generic introduction because it behooves me to do this piece right. I’m talking about China here, after all. It’s not a particular small subject that can be parlayed concisely. Now, about that technology stuff….

China, unlike with its manufacturing and energy and infrastructure production sectors, doesn’t have a replica of its own of Silicon Valley. At least not one that it touts especially proudly. Technology corporations and startups of Asian origin and upbringing in the PRC are scattered throughout the country’s metropolitan regions. Most all are based in one or more of its big cities, sure. But on the whole, they’re not clustered in one big “megastrip”.

Is this a bad thing? Probably not. It might be beneficial for China to designate a portion of land to technological innovation. But it’s not absolutely critical. While clusters were necessary to have in decades past because of IT’s premature existence, today telecommunication allows anyone to be anywhere and network to one’s heart’s content.

And that ties in with what I finally mean to say here. Which is that Asia – and China in particular – will, if all goes as planned, be showing some massive Web 2.0 claws in 2008.

I know, I know, another prediction. Who gives a crap, right?

Well, I think you should. Give a crap, I mean. The reason you should: China will matter a whole lot more this year than it did the last. That goes for the fossil fuels it consumes, the big banking it does, and, yes, the technology industry it has so far had mixed feelings about.

It’s going to matter more because it’s now sitting on a massive financial stockpile, and it’s got to do something with the dough. What will it do with it all? Invest, of course. Invest in roads, and cities, and power lines and, oh yes, its broadband infrastructure.

And the distribution of all that fat and delicious fiber is going to further spark the development of new companies. A whole heckuva lot of companies. Yes, many will produce worthless, sometimes overvalued garbage. But gems will inevitably spring forth. I’m sensing a great many gems, actually. Perhaps a good number will eventually grow to swim with the big fish (Baidu, Google, Yahoo!, etc.). Many, many more will find their respective places in the middle-class of the tech space.

In short, China will be heading on up with fervor – a fervor we should watch with particular interest.

We spent 2007 watching the country from afar, feeling a mix of trepidation and nostalgia. Yes, we once had ourselves a great big boom to feast on. Now it seems China’s going to have its cake – and eat it, too.

And mark my words. The red dragon will be one of the most prominent conversation pieces in all the world, if not the topic of the day/week/month. That will be so for the US, for Europe, for Africa, and Japan. Even China itself is going to be doing a good amount more self-analysis.

There’s no point denying its rising influence. There’s no reason for one to try to keep cool about it. China’s big. It’s going to get much bigger still. It’s time we paid far closer attention. Besides, it’s good to know more. Knowing more allows one to make fewer mistakes.

Mistakes can be costly in the face of competitive expansion.