Is Facebook Really Struggling in 2008?

During 2007, the former college student-limited social network known as Facebook experienced its most successful year to date in terms of growth and traffic. All eyes were on Facebook for the now widely-mimicked developer API, as well as the advertising platform designed to help monetize its surging crop of applications. Facebook was even supposedly valued at a worth of $15 billion (according to Microsoft’s $240 million investment), which is not bad for a company whose CEO is just 23 years old.

While some may have called 2007 the year of Facebook, data surveys have been claiming since as far back as October that Facebook’s increasing traffic numbers were in trouble, as well as the poor-performing new advertising network. Om Malik cleared some of the confusion up, when he revealed that this was sort of a seasonal dip and that “the 9.3 percent decline in unique visitors and 3.8 percent decline in page views” were part of a historical pattern.

Now, however, speculation has arisen once again that Facebook traffic numbers are down in the UK, while the number of unique visitors in the U.S. seems to be leveling off. The UK-based Guardian reports that Facebook has suffered its first fall in UK users since becoming the most popular social network within the country, after witnessing a 5% drop between December and January. TechCrunch has also reported that, in the states, the number of visitors has leveled off, and “even dipped by about 800,000 individuals in January,” when the site saw just 33.9 million unique visitors compared to 34.7 million last December.

Part of this could be due to the Beacon backlash after users complained to too much ‘friend spam’, but it is also possible that this is just another seasonal change, as Nick O’Neill has mentioned. “Using the monthly metrics is highly misleading and is like day trading in the stock market and using it as an indicator for long-term growth. It simply won’t work.”

O’Neill went on further to state that growth is expected to continue at Facebook, with an increase likely between January and February. “We are going to see continued growth in this space for the next 12- to 24-months and social networks transform into social platforms and OpenSocial attempts to make a significant impact in the industry.”

In related news, developers still seem to be disappointed with the poor performance and low earnings from Facebook’s ad network, which will most likely prompt some changes to be made.

What is your take on this? If you are a Facebook user, are your visiting habits the same? Do Facebook and other social networks still have the potential that seemed so obvious just a short year ago?

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